Aerobic Fitness wins again
Recent analysis of a specialist riot police training program led by Dr Ben Schram again highlighted aerobic fitness as the strongest predictor of successful course completion. Officers with higher initial shuttle run scores had substantially greater likelihood of finishing, with modelling showing clear probability thresholds:
Meeting the minimum standard ~60% probability of completion
+4 shuttles above minimum ~70% probability
+9 shuttles above minimum ~80% probability
+17 shuttles above minimum ~90% probability
Strength and power also emerged as important contributors to occupationally relevant performance under load, with explosive lower‑body ability and upper‑body force production showing the strongest associations.
Interestingly, demographic characteristics did not predict outcomes. Age, height, weight, and sex had no meaningful influence once physical performance was accounted for.
These findings reinforce a simple operational truth - start with aerobic fitness!